Florida Real Estate Report by Wachovia - Page 7

All this growth has fueled healthy gains in home sales and residential development. Sales of existing homes have increased 55 percent over the past three years. But sales have increased much more modestly during the past 12 months, however, climbing just 1%. One reason sales have slowed is that the inventory of homes on the market is simply not sufficient to meet demand. Brevard County has added 57,000 new residents and 23,000 households over the past five years. During this period, construction of single and multi-family homes has totaled just 29,000 units. Total demand for new homes, including second homes, vacation properties, and replacements for homes destroyed by last fall's hurricanes, was somewhere in excess of 34,000 units during this period. The net result has been a dramatic increase in prices for existing homes, which have surged 127 percent over the past five years, and 40 percent over the past year alone.

The run-up in housing prices may be cooling off demand among trade-up buyers and retirees. Brevard County is no longer and inexpensive destination for retirees. Prices for existing homes are now 114 percent of the national average, up from 75 percent five years ago. At just under $240,000, however, the median price of an existing home is still well below the median price in much of the Northeast and Midwest, where the bulk of the area's retirees tend to come from. So even if the flow of retirees into the region slows a bit, it should remain considerable. We are expecting the supply and demand for homes in Brevard County to move into better balance, which should lead to significantly less, yet still considerable, price appreciation during the coming year.

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach

Daytona Beach is also enjoying strong demand for single-family homes and condominiums. Sales of existing homes in Volusia and Flagler counties have surged 84 percent over the past three years. Growth has been fueled by a steady flow of retirees into the region, a growing population of prime-working age adults, some overflow of commuters from the Orlando area and the rediscovery of Flagler County, located north of Volusia County. The growth in the region's population has helped drive job growth. Nonfarm employment has increased 2.9 percent over the past year, with hiring up in virtually every industry. The unemployment rate has fallen to just 3.8 percent.

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormand Beach MSA Housing Permits

Daytona Beach has benefited from an abundance of land available for residential development as well as ample opportunities for redevelopment along the Beach and along the Halifax River. Property prices have also traditionally been much lower than in counties in the southern part of the state. That mix has set off a development boom throughout Volusia County. Construction is underway on a number of condominium projects throughout the county and many more are planed along the beach and river.

Unfortunately, construction has been unable to keep up with demand. Volusia County has added 46,000 full-time residents over the past five years, translating into 20,000 new households. As in many other Florida communities, Volusia County lost some homes to the hurricanes last fall. Moreover, much of the recent development has been targeted toward the second home and vacation home market. The net result is that the demand for homes still vastly exceeds the available supply. A total of 25,000 homes, townhouses, condominiums and apartments have been built during the past five years, and we conservatively estimate that demand has been close to 30,000 units. The gap between the supply and demand for homes is one reason why housing prices have soared 34 percent over the past year, which has lifted the median home price slightly above the U.S. median. We expect new construction to strengthen slightly from recent levels, while demand cools off slightly. That should help bring the market into better balance in 2006, when we expect home price appreciation to be less than half what we have seen over the past year.

Flagler County was included as part of the Daytona Beach metropolitan area during the 1990s but is not included now. While Flagler County does have significant ties to the Daytona Beach area, its growth dynamics are largely internally driven. The area was developed as a retirement haven way back in the 1970s and struggled for quite some time. Now the area has arrived. Flagler County has been the fastest growing county in Florida during the past five years, attracting 22,000 new residents. Growth is expected to remain strong through the end of the decade, thanks largely to the abundance of available sites to develop residential communities and resorts.

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater

Central Florida is booming on Florida's west coast too. The Tampa-St Petersburg- Clearwater area consistently ranks as Florida largest existing home market. Sales of existing homes have more than tripled over the past three years, but, as in many areas of the state, have grown more modestly in recent months. The Tampa Bay area is a top destination for corporate relocations and expansions, and consistently ranks among Florida's fastest growing areas. Nonfarm payrolls have risen 2.8 percent over the past year, which has helped drive the unemployment rate down to just 3.8 percent.

Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater MSA Existing Home Sales

With employment growing solidly and the unemployment rate plunging, job seekers have poured into the Bay area. The four-county metropolitan area has added 240,000 new residents over the past four years, which translates into 102,000 new households. When you add in demand for second homes and vacation properties, market demand for new homes is somewhere around 145,000 units over the past five years. During this period, builders have supplied 120,000 units. Once again, the net result has been sharply higher prices for existing homes, which have surged 98 percent over the past five years, including a 30 percent jump this past year.

One of the attributes that has historically made the Tampa Bay area so attractive to new businesses has been that housing is relatively affordable. That is still true today, but not to the degree that it used to be. Five years ago, the median price of a home in the Tampa Bay area was $109,600, which was just 78.7 percent of the national median. Today, the median price is $217,400, and is 3.3 percent above the national median. The convergence is not all that surprising given Tampa's enormous growth over the past few years. Years of rapid population growth have simply left fewer desirable areas of the Bay area to develop residential properties, and many of them are now controlled by a handful of builders, which tends to restrain supply.

We expect the Bay area to continue to grow solidly over the next several years. Tampa is still an attractive area for corporate relocations and expansions. Recent announcements include the expansion of a call center operation in St. Petersburg by West Marine, which will create 100 jobs, and a new call center by Humana, which will create 200 jobs in Tampa. Growth in health care, financial services, and business and professional services are other notable bright spots for the region. We are expecting 45,000 new jobs to be created this year.

Builders are responding to all of this growth by increasing development. The supply of lots coming to market has edged slightly higher in the past year and construction of single-family homes is rising. Demand is still exceeding supply, however, and this will continue to put pressure on prices. After rising 30 percent over the past year, we expect prices to rise around 15 percent during the coming year.

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