Wachovia Report - Economic Commentary - Page 2
We expect job growth to moderate slightly in 2006, with nonfarm payrolls climbing 3.2% for a new gain of 250,000 jobs. An increase of that magnitude would likely drive the unemployment rate down even further, although many firms already are reporting difficulty finding skilled workers. Fortunately, Florida continues to attract scores of job seekers from other states. The state added 404,000 new residents in 2005 and is expected to add nearly that many again this year.
Residential construction soars to new hights
Strong population and employment growth has driven single-family homebuilding to new heights. Permits for new single-family homes rose 15.1% over the past year to a record 204,500 units. The strength reflects a confluence of factors, including exceptionally strong population and income growth, low interest rates, strong currencies in Canada, Europe and Latin America, and an aging U.S. population which is driving up homeownership in general. The net result has been remarkably strong home sales over the past few years.
Until recently, much of the strength in home sales was confined to the existing market, where sales have increased 42% over the past three years. One of the reasons existing home sales have been so strong is that there has not been enough new product to meet demand. As a result, prices for existing homes have soared. That began to change in late 2005, as new construction finally began to ramp up throughout the state. Existing homes now face much more competition from new homes, particularly in Central Florida. As a result, existing homes are staying on the market for a bit longer than they have in recent years. Instead of selling in three to four days, as homes did early this year, many are now staying on the market for three or four months. We do not view this as anything more serious than a much needed correction.
Multi-family construction increased 12.4% this past year, with most of the increase coming from condominium projects. Development of condominiums has received a great of attention in recent months, particularly in Miami, where construction of 60,000 units has been approved. Nowhere near that many units are likely to be built, however, particularly now that already high concrete and steel prices have soared even higher in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Moreover, skilled construction workers are in extremely short supply throughout the state and are likely to remain so for the next few years. With short-term interest rates climbing and credit beginning to tighten, construction has likely already peaked, which should help prevent the market from becoming troublesomely oversupplied.
We are looking for single family construction to slow in 2006, with permits for new single-family homes declining 7%. Sales of existing homes may decline even more than that, which should arrest the rapid appreciation in home values seen in recent years. After surging 25% in 2005, we expect the median price of an existing home to rise around 8% in 2006. While some problems will likely surface, we expect that Florida’s housing market is most likely to see a soft landing this year and next.
Tourism
Tourism is well positioned to build on last year’s solid gains. More than 80 million people visited the Sunshine State in 2005, marking an increase of 8%. Hotel occupancy rates and room rates rose throughout the state, with the largest gains occurring in Central Florida and South Florida. Tourism tax collections through November are running 8.7% ahead of their year ago level and amusement park admissions were estimated to have increased by more than 10%.
The coming year should see additional gains, as several new attractions are opened in Central Florida. One of the largest is Expedition Everest, which will open in Disney’s Animal Kingdom resort this April. Sea World is also adding a number of attractions and Miami will be hosting the next Super Bowl in early 2007. The convention and meeting business also remains strong, with most of the growth once again occurring in central and southern Florida. Total tourist visits to the Sunshine State should easily grow 5% this year, producing an 8% gain in tourism tax collections.
Technology
Florida’s technology sector is gaining momentum, particularly defense-related industries. The technology sector finally appears to have recovered from the bursting of the tech bubble back in 2000 and the onslaught of foreign competition that followed that. Florida’s defense and technology sector is largely concentrated in Central Florida, in the Tampa Bay, Orlando, Melbourne, and Ocala metropolitan areas. In addition, progress is finally being made in developing the Scripps Research Institute in Palm Beach County. The biotech research facility is already leading to growth around Florida Atlantic University and is encouraging a wave of research partnerships from around the globe.
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