Wachovia Report - Florida Economic Commentary - Page 1
Even in a state accustomed to outperforming the national economy year after year, Florida’s most recent gains must still be classified as extraordinary. Nonfarm employment growth has risen 3.5% over the past year and the state’s unemployment rate has fallen to an all-time low of just 3.3%. Growth is extremely broad-based with nearly every industry and every metropolitan area posting strong gains over the past year. Personal income surged 8.4% during the year and our own estimate of Gross State Product posted a 6.6% increase.
Nearly everything that could go right for Florida did so in 2005. Tourism and international trade strengthened, providing a huge lift to Orlando and South Florida. Low interest rates and a relatively weak dollar kept home building strong and continued to reel in foreign buyers. Businesses also stepped up and began to expand their operations, which contributed to strong gains in business and professional services. Business also picked up in the state’s key defense and technology sectors.
Employment conditions have seldom been better
Employment conditions have rarely been more positive. Preliminary data show nonfarm employment increased 3.4% this past year, with all 21 of Florida’s metropolitan areas posting gains significantly ahead of the nation. Moreover, those gains are most likely understated. Household employment, which has traditionally provided a good indication of what nonfarm employment will look like after the annual revision process, surged nearly 5% this past year. While we do not expect a final number anywhere near that strong, we believe nonfarm payrolls will be revised higher by at least half a percentage point, producing a net gain of 290,000 jobs.
More than 100,000 homes still need to have their roofs repaired from the six hurricanes that have ravaged the state over the past two years.
Florida’s exceptionally strong growth is pulling in job seekers from other states. The latest Census figures show the Sunshine State added 404,000 residents in 2005, which marks the largest gain since 1980, when the state saw a two-year surge in immigration from Cuba. All of this growth is creating some strains across the state. Housing costs have risen dramatically and the growing popularity of condominium conversions has led to an acute shortage of rental apartments in Orlando and South Florida. State and local governments are also struggling to keep up with ever increasing infrastructure needs.
The recent rash of hurricanes has also presented challenges to the state. Four hurricanes ravaged the state in 2004 and two others (Dennis and Wilma) hit the state this past year. Damage is still evident across much of the state from the previous year’s storms. Blue tarps are a common sight throughout Florida and more than 100,000 homes still need to have their roofs repaired. In addition, insurance costs have risen dramatically and the state’s catastrophic insurance fund will need to be replenished.
The Sun Continues To Shine Brightly On Florida's Economy
Hiring also rose solidly in the greater Tampa Bay area. Nonfarm payrolls increased 3.3% in the four-county Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area, as businesses and local governments created more than 33,000 new jobs. Growth was slightly less robust in neighboring Lakeland and Winter Haven, where payrolls increased a more modest 2.6%.
Southwest Florida continues to see some of the most rapid employment gains in the state, with payrolls surging 4.7% in the Sarasota-Bradenton area, and climbing 3.9% in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte. Gains were just as impressive a little further south, with hiring in Cape Coral and Fort Myers rising 4.6% and job growth in Naples topping 4.4%.
North Florida, where job growth has traditionally been more modest, saw strong gains in 2005. Hiring in Jacksonville rose 2.7%, producing a net gain of around 16,000 new jobs. Gainesville and Ocala grew at about that same pace, producing a net gain of around 3,500 and 2,400 jobs, respectively. Growth was slightly stronger up in the panhandle, with hiring climbing 4.4% in the Fort Walton Beach-Destin area and 2.7% in Pensacola.
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